GTA and Surrounding Area Housing Market Review - September 2022
Our monthly analysis of GTA housing market based on TRREB data.
Detached Homes
The average prices for detached homes continue to drop from their peak in February across all areas except for Halton. The year-over-year average price has grown in September compared to August.
As the Bank of Canada intended, interest rate hikes are having a cooling effect on the economy, and the industries that are directly impacted by the interest rate changes, such as housing, are seeing the impact first. RBC and CIBC have both forecasted additional interest rate increases of 0.75% and 0.50%, respectively, for the remainder of the year. As a result, many are expecting housing prices to fall further.
Note that these figures have not been adjusted using MLS HPI methodology and can be more volatile than HPI prices. As a note, HPI prices increased year over year can be found here.
Average Housing Price
| Period | Feb 2022 | Sep 2022 | Change since peak | Change % | Sep 2021 | YoY Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City of Toronto | 2,073,989 | 1,585,589 | -488,400 | -24% | 1,778,928 | -193,339 | -11% |
| Halton Region | 1,938,011 | 1,571,185 | -366,826 | -19% | 1,591,454 | -20,269 | -1% |
| Peel Region | 1,752,303 | 1,319,828 | -432,475 | -25% | 1,462,264 | -142,436 | -10% |
| York Region | 1,992,741 | 1,527,795 | -464,946 | -23% | 1,738,547 | -210,752 | -12% |
| Durham Region | 1,379,287 | 1,002,111 | -377,176 | -27% | 1,086,681 | -84,570 | -8% |
Monthly Average Price, Detached
Sales Volume, Detached
Sales to New Listing Ratio, Detached
We saw a trend toward a seller’s market in August but we see a reversal in September. Toronto is down below 0.40, which is a buyer’s market, while other regions remain in a balanced market. There has been an increase in new listings compared to the sales for detached homes.
We should note that for the last 4 years, September trends lower for the Sales-to-new-listing ratio and trends up for the remainder of the year due to the shortage of new listings. The chart below is taken from the Housing Market Charts released by TRREB for September.
Semi-Detached Homes
It’s interesting to note that the average prices for semi-detached homes turned around in September for all regions except Durham. York region remained relatively flat. The change may indicate that buyers are priced out of the more expensive detached homes as mortgage costs have increased.
Sales volume has dropped compared to the previous month in all regions except for Toronto. This matches the historical trend in September, as illustrated in the TRREB chart above. However, Durham seems to be bucking the trend.
Average Housing Price
| Period | Feb 2022 | Sep 2022 | Change since peak | Change % | Sep 2021 | YoY Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City of Toronto | 1,499,489 | 1,210,715 | -288,774 | -19% | 1,304,504 | -93,789 | -7% |
| Halton Region | 1,324,936 | 1,061,547 | -263,389 | -20% | 1,059,620 | 1,927 | 0% |
| Peel Region | 1,282,408 | 968,063 | -314,345 | -25% | 982,439 | -14,376 | -1% |
| York Region | 1,410,794 | 1,039,600 | -371,194 | -26% | 1,147,708 | -108,108 | -9% |
| Durham Region | 1,074,896 | 761,625 | -313,271 | -29% | 779,048 | -17,423 | -2% |
Monthly Average Price, Semi-Detached
Sales Volume, Semi-Detached
Sales to New Listing Ratio, Semi-Detached
Condo
Condo prices have started to trend up, with the exception of Halton Region. Perhaps we are seeing more demand for affordable housing types. Condo sale volume has dropped and new listings have gone up, which matches the trend for the last four years. Toronto enters into a buyers’ market based on the sales-to-new-listing ratio but we expect this to reverse in the following month as new listings slow down.
Average Housing Price
| Period | Feb 2022 | Sep 2022 | Change from peak | Change % | Sep 2021 | YoY Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City of Toronto | 822,090 | 769,058 | -53,032 | -6% | 720,832 | 24,328 | 3% |
| Halton Region | 811,136 | 667,978 | -143,158 | -18% | 698,661 | -79,066 | -11% |
| Peel Region | 728,678 | 626,851 | -101,827 | -14% | 580,626 | 46,667 | 8% |
| York Region | 795,683 | 695,455 | -100,228 | -13% | 658,915 | 36,519 | 6% |
| Durham Region | 658,151 | 573,515 | -84,636 | -13% | 544,709 | 28,806 | 5% |
